If federal healthcare reform is not legislated, within 10 years the cost of health care for businesses could double and the number of uninsured Americans could reach 65.7 million, with middle-income families hardest hit, according to a Robert Wood Johnson Foundation report.
The research from the Urban Institute simulates how coverage and cost trends would change between now and 2019 under three different scenarios based on growth in incomes and growth rates for health care costs. Without reform, totals for uncompensated care could more than double, from $62.1 billion in 2009 to $141.4 billion in 2019 in the worst case, and even $106.6 billion in the best case. The study estimates that only 56.1 percent of Americans would be covered by employer-sponsored insurance as health insurance premiums increased 72 percent under the best-case scenario to as few as 49.2 percent by 2019. For individuals and families, health care costs would likely increase at least 46 percent. The report makes clear that the biggest effects of not having health reform would be felt by families with moderate incomes, who have less access to public coverage. Under the model, the number of middle-income earners without insurance would increase sharply from 12.5 million in 2009 to as many as 18.2 million in 2019.
In addition, spending on Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program could increase from $251.2 billion this year to $519.7 billion in 2019 as more people are priced out of private insurance and become eligible for government programs. Enrollment in these programs could increase to 20.3 percent in 2019—an increase of 13.3 million people from current figures.
