The changing age-mix of the U.S. population has had only a modest effect on the growth of healthcare spending, and that trend is expected to continue even as the nation ages dramatically over the next four decades, experts at the federal government’s Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services reported Nov. 6 in a Health Affairs web exclusive. Consistent with other studies, the authors found that per capita health spending grew faster for those under age 65 than for those age 65 and older, although the difference--0.2 percent annually between 1987 and 1999--was much less than previously reported.
Among the elderly, the largest decline in spending relative to the nonelderly occurred among those age 85 and older. Because the oldest elderly are a relatively small subgroup of the elderly, the slower spending growth for this group has not had a large effect on overall trends in per capita spending for seniors. That could change in the future, though, when those over age 85 make up a greater share of the nation’s population.
The more significant impact on Medicare spending is anticipated to come from Medicare enrollment--1.6 percent average annual growth between 2004 and 2050--rather than through a change in the age-mix of the Medicare population, according to the researchers. Read the abstract.
