Growth in U.S. national health expenditures (NHE) is expected to have increased faster than the growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2009, according to a report issued today by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) and published online by Health Affairs. In 2009, NHE is projected to have reached $2.5 trillion and grown 5.7 percent, up from 4.4 percent in 2008 (the latest available historical year), while GDP, with the economy still in recession, is anticipated to have declined 1.1 percent. Health spending estimates for 2009 are projected because data for all of CY09 are not yet available.
The projected acceleration in growth for 2009 was due in part to faster spending growth for the Medicaid program (9.9 percent, up from 4.7 percent in 2008), reflecting increasing growth in enrollment associated with the recession. Also contributing to the acceleration was faster growth in the use of a variety of healthcare services as many people sought treatment for the H1N1 virus and an expected increase in the take-up rate for coverage provided through COBRA in response to the government's subsidies for COBRA premiums. As a result of NHE growth outpacing GDP growth in 2009, the health share of GDP is expected to have increased from 16.2 percent of GDP in 2008 to 17.3 percent in 2009, which would represent the largest one-year increase in history.
Spending growth in three of the major healthcare sectors is expected to have accelerated in 2009. Hospital spending growth is expected to have increased 5.9 percent in 2009, up from 4.5 percent in 2008, and reached $760.6 billion. Physician and clinical services spending growth is expected to have increased 6.3 percent in 2009, up from 5.0 percent in 2008, and reached $527.6 billion.
