Over the next decade, U.S. healthcare spending is expected to double from today’s level, reaching $4.1 trillion and consuming almost 20 cents of every dollar spent--or nearly 20% of the nation’s gross domestic product. That is the report of federal forecasters in an article published Feb. 21 as a Health Affairs web exclusive. Health spending in 2006 is projected at $2.1 trillion, which accounts for 16% of the GDP.
The average annual growth in healthcare spending is projected to remain relatively steady at 6.9% from 2006 through 2016, predict economists and actuaries from the Office of the Actuary at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services in their annual forecasting report. The growth in health spending is expected to drop slightly from 6.9% in 2005 to 6.8% in 2006, marking the fourth consecutive year of a slowdown in spending, preliminary data show. The CMS authors say that the addition of the Medicare drug benefit, slower projected growth in Medicaid, and slower growth in private healthcare spending are among the factors contributing to these trends. However, despite the mild expected slowdown, consumers’ out-of-pocket spending on health care--expected to reach $250.6 billion in 2006--is projected to climb to more than $440.8 billion by 2016, they report, “caused by gradually accelerating medical price inflation and increases in use.” Read the report.
