If federal reform efforts are not enacted, the costs would be substantial, according to a new report commissioned by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. In every state, the number of uninsured will increase, employer-sponsored insurance coverage will continue to erode, spending on public programs will balloon, and out-of-pocket healthcare costs for individuals and families could increase by more than 35 percent over the next decade, the authors say. While all income levels would be affected, middle-class working families would be hardest hit.
Researchers from the Urban Institute used a simulation model to estimate how coverage and cost trends would change between now and 2019 if the health system is not reformed. The analysis examines best, intermediate, and worst-case scenarios. In the worst-case scenario:
- In 29 states, the number of people without insurance would increase by more than 30 percent.
- Businesses would see their premiums continue to increase—more than doubling in 27 states.
- Every state would see a smaller share of its population getting health care through their job.
- Every state would see their Medicaid/Children's Health Insurance Program spending rise by more than 75 percent.
- The amount of uncompensated care in the health system would more than double in 45 states.
