Growth in national health expenditures (NHE) in the United States is expected to significantly outpace economic growth in 2008 and 2009 due to the recession, according to a report issued today by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS).
In 2008, NHE growth is expected to be 6.1 percent, as health spending increases from $2.2 trillion in 2007 to $2.4 trillion in 2008. In comparison, economic growth, as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP), is anticipated to be 3.5 percent. For 2009, health spending is projected to increase 5.5 percent while GDP is expected to decrease 0.2 percent. The health share of GDP is expected to increase from 16.2 percent in 2007 to 16.6 percent in 2008 and to 17.6 percent in 2009. By 2018, national health spending is expected to reach $4.4 trillion and comprise just over one-fifth (20.3 percent) of GDP.
Hospital spending growth is expected to edge downward from 7.3 percent in 2007 to 7.2 percent in 2008, and then decelerate further in 2009 to 5.7 percent. Driving the expected deceleration in hospital spending growth is projected slowing growth in use associated with the recession and projected slower income growth. In addition, hospital price growth is expected to decelerate to the slowest rates since 2000 (2.9 percent in 2008 and 2.6 percent in 2009), also associated with the effects of the recession.
Read the online report, prepared by CMS’s Office of the Actuary and published by Health Affairs.
