Vizient: Healthcare utilization shifts will reshape care delivery over the next decade

A slowdown in inpatient admissions was among the 10-year health system volume projections in the annual look ahead from Vizient.

The 2026 Impact of Change forecast, released June 30, highlights how shifts in care delivery, patient complexity and site-of-care access challenges are reshaping healthcare utilization and will change the structure of the healthcare continuum.

Here are seven of the key projections:

1. Admissions surge over. The recent inpatient volume surge was seen in adult inpatient discharges increasing 5% from 2023 to 2024, according to the Vizient Clinical Data Base. However, those slowed to a 3% increase from 2024 to 2025. Inpatient discharges were projected to increase 7% over the next 10 years.
2. Another ED surge. Adult emergency department (ED) volumes were projected to increase 6% over the next decade, due to expected increase in uninsured patients who delay preventive care and rely on EDs. That would follow a 4% increase in ED visits per calendar day from year-to-date 2023 to year-to-date 2026 — a time of historically low uninsured rates — according to the latest Kaufman Hall Hospital Flash Report.
3. Outpatient shift continues. Outpatient volumes were projected to grow 20% over the coming 10 years. Helping to drive that is a projected 20% increase in outpatient cancer volumes.
4. Heart headed. Adult cardiovascular care was projected to have the largest volume increases among all service lines for both inpatient (13%) and outpatient (29%) over the next 10 years. 
5. Virtual exams. Total evaluation and management (E&M) visits were projected to increase by 19% over the next 10 years. By 2036, virtual E&M visits were projected to comprise 20% of all E&M visits.
6. Home growth. Home health was projected to increase 27% over the next 10 years and fuel a 31% increase in overall post-acute care growth.
7. Child spiral. Pediatric inpatient volumes were expected to increase next year before embarking on a 2% overall decrease over the next nine years. However, pediatric outpatient volumes were expected to increase 6% over the next 10 years — driven by a projected 19% increase in pediatric behavioral health.